Business Challenge

An intermediate upstream oil and gas producer requested PMO’s support to evaluate worst-case credible fire scenarios to inform their business interruption insurance coverage. While the initial goal was to right-size insurance, PMO’s assessment revealed far more significant vulnerabilities. Certain credible fire scenarios presented the potential for complete facility loss and corporation-wideimpacts—risks not previously identified or quantified by the client. This required a more in-depth, expert-led emergency management and fire risk review to understand exposure and determine improvements in prevention, protection, and response readiness.

Objectives & Success Criteria

The client sought to:

• Identify worst-case credible fire scenarios based on design, operations, and hazard profile.
• Assess likely damage extent and potential facility-wide or corporate-level impacts.
• Review emergency management and fire prevention practices.
• Support business interruption insurance alignment.

Success was ultimately redefined:

• Moving beyond insurance optimization to identifying and mitigating catastrophic risk.
• Providing actionable, prioritized recommendations to improve preparedness and operational resilience.

PMO Solution (What We Did)

PMO conducted as tructured fire consequence and emergency risk assessment, including:

• A comprehensive document review (procedures, design files, emergency plans).
• Interviews with operations personnel and safety leadership.
• Site observations to evaluate physical conditions, ignition sources, and fire protection systems.
• Meeting with the client’s insurance representative to align on risk context.

Using emergency management and fire investigation expertise, PMO identified several worst-case credible fire scenarios—including scenarios capable of completely disabling the facility. PMO quantified potential consequences, reviewed existing emergency management practices, and highlighted key vulnerabilities across prevention, protection, and response layers. PMO prepared a prioritized recommendations roadmap to help the client reduce exposure and strengthen mitigation controls.

Key Components / Activities

• Review of facility documentation, drawings, and emergency procedures
• Interviews with operations and safety personnel
• On-site fire hazard and vulnerability assessment
• Engagement with client’s insurance representative
• Identification of worst-case credible fire scenarios
• Modeling and analysis of potential consequences and damage extent
• Validation of existing emergency practices and identification of gaps
• Prioritized risk mitigation roadmap and recommendations
• Ongoing advisory support for implementation

Outcomes & Impact

PMO validated several strong emergency management practices already in place but also uncovered significant vulnerabilities with the potential for catastrophic loss.The findings prompted senior leadership to shift focus from insurance sizing to proactive risk reduction and operational resilience. PMO’s prioritized roadmap allowed the client to address high-consequence vulnerabilities, improve fire preparedness, and reduce organization-wide exposure. PMO continues to support the client in implementing recommended improvements.

Lessons Learned / Challenges Overcome

A central challenge was reframing the client’s understanding of their actual fire risk profile—moving from insurance-driven thinking to operational and existential risk management. PMO overcame this by presenting clear, evidence-based consequences and aligning findings with both operational and corporate risk frameworks. Another lesson learned was the value of integrating fire consequence assessment with emergency management evaluation to reveal risk pathways not captured in traditional insurance-only analyses. 

Value Proposition Summary

PMO delivered a high-value fire consequence assessment that fundamentally shifted the client’s understanding of their risk exposure. By combining emergency management expertise, field observations, and realistic consequence modelling, PMO identified vulnerabilities with the potential for catastrophic corporate impact. The resulting roadmap provided a clear path to risk reduction and improved preparedness. This project demonstrates PMO’s ability to uncover, articulate, and mitigate high-consequence risks for upstream oil and gas operators.